What Iran Wants

So the Mexicans are probably the happiest team between all 32 qualifiers as they will avoid some of the other heavyweights in the first round. Now onto to business closer to home. Iran was placed in the fourth pot along with the other Asian sides and the remaining CONCACAF representatives, confirming FIFA's decision to divide the 24 remaining teams geographically. However, one surprise was that CONCACAF sides joined the Asian ones in the same pot, rather than, as history had been a precedent, the South American sides doing so instead. This may turn out to do more harm than good for Iran's cause.

Now with the draw looming, it may be worthwhile to view a number of different possibilities that exist for the Iranians and assess how that affects their chances of progressing to the second round, an ambition that has openly been mooted by fans and the media, even before Iran's qualification had been confirmed. Head coach Branko Ivankovic has also stated on a number of occassions that the ultimate ambition for the side is to advance to the second round. The players, though, have generally played down these calls.

Whilst accepting the fact that all the qualified teams will be present in Germany next summer on merit and cannot be underestimated, it is safe to suggest that some teams are stronger than others and will pose more of an obstacle to their opponents at the World Cup. With that said, who should Iran be hoping joins them in their group on Friday
night?

Pot One

The first pot will include the 8 seeded teams, and it is hard to pick one over the other, as there is so little to separate most of them. Would you rather face Zidane, Rooney or Ronaldinho? Or maybe a touch of Joaquin and Reyes is what you crave for? Michael Ballack maybe? An endless list of superstars can be compiled from these teams, at least on paper.

But on closer look, there are a number of factors that cannot be overlooked. Brazil are the reigning champions and undoubtedly the best side in the world currently. They will go into the World Cup as odds-on favorites, a tag which has proven to be an albatross in the past for those who carried it. The prospect of facing the front four of Ronaldo, Adriano, Ronaldinho and Kaka is a daunting one for any side. Even if you score against Brazil, their motto has always been to score more. Can Iran outscore Brazil? Unlikely. Can they keep out the Brazilians? Similarly unlikely. Avoiding Brazil in the draw will be a bonus. You can probably add Argentina to that list too. On paper, Mexico seem the "easiest" possibility for the Iranians, but do not forget the performances that they put on during the Confederations Cup last summer. Without a doubt, though, Iran will be hoping to be in Mexico's group, as it will, at least on paper, give them a chance to get something out of the game. Surprisingly, the second best seeded opponent for Iran may be the hosts, Germany. Germany will start under public pressure, and hosts usually make a slow start to the World Cup, it may be ideal to face Germany in the opening match and take the game to them. Many of the Iranian players will be quite familiar with the Germans already, having played in the Bundesliga. The fact that the current Iran side played Germany in a friendly last year will also be an advantage. Remember, Germany does not possess many world class players in its side and even though they are hosts and will have the backing of the crowd, it will not be impossible for opponents to take points off them. That would leave England, France, Italy and Spain, the remaining European top seeds, all of whom will have real ambitions to lift the trophy. Again, it is difficult to pick one over the other, but we cannot overlook the fact that France is not the side that it once was, having stumbled across the finish line during qualification, although the return of Zidane has given everyone a lift, whilst Spain has always promised to deceive during major tournaments. The current Spanish side, whilst possessing pace and quality all over, are rather inexperienced at this level, and on a bad day can be beaten by inferior opposition. At the moment, it looks like key midfielder Xavi Hernandez may actually miss the Finals next summer, an added boost. Whoever Iran draws, it is probably best if they face them during the first game, as the top teams "usually" are traditional slow starters, especially a side like Italy, as they make their way towards reaching their peak. With the same token, in some circumstances it may be useful to face the top seed in the last match of the group, if they have already sewn up the group and made their way to the second round, as the team might choose to rest some players especially those who are carrying a yellow card, for fear of suspension in the second round.

Pot Two

The second pot contains all remaining South American teams alongside Australia and the African-block. On first glance, the South American sides provide the sternest opposition from this pot. Both Paraguay and Ecuador attained impressive results during the qualification campaign. This included beating Brazil and Argentina. The Paraguay side that came to Tehran recently was a shadow of the team that will be going to the World Cup as it was missing a number of key regular players. Nevertheless, they were, by far, the best side on display, and this is testament to the strength in depth of the Paraguayans. Out of the five African qualifiers, four of them are making their first appearance, but this does not take anything away from their strength. Ivory Coast and Ghana have key players playing regularly at a number of top European sides. They provide, at this point, the most realistic chances for Africa to have a side at the latter stages of the World Cup. Between the others, Tunisia is the most experienced and have a top quality coach in Roger Lemerre at the helm. The Tunisians also have a number of key players in their side but they have always failed miserably at the World Cup. However, they are the reigning African Nation's Cup Champions (they might not be come the World Cup, as the next edition of the tournament takes place in January 2006), and displayed some impressive performances at the Confederations Cup in 2005, gaining many fans in the process.Togo and Angola will probably struggle to make it past the first round, although with strikers such as Adebayor and Akwa in their ranks respectively, they will always pose a goal-scoring threat. That leaves Australia. Having already avenged defeat by the Uruguayans from four years earlier, there will probably be quite a few Australians hoping to do the same with Iran at the World Cup. Would you bet against that? Guus Hiddink is a top class coach, who has led both HOlland and South Korea to respectable finishes at major tournaments and he will be looking to take the Australians to the second round at least.

Between all the sides, Iran would probably be served best by being grouped with either Togo or Angola, whilst avoiding the others, especially the South Americans and the two other African nations. At the end of the day, for Iran to progress, they must, in essence, beat whoever they draw out of the second pot, or risk likely elimination.

Pot Three

The final pot of potential opponents is probably the trickiest of them all. It contains the remaining European teams, other than Serbia & Montenegro. It goes without saying that Holland, Czech Republic and Portugal are, on paper, the teams to be avoided from this pot. Holland has not lost a competitive match under Marco van Basten, only losing one friendly against an experienced Italian side, Czech Republic is largely the same side that excelled at the last European Championships, whilst Portugal provides a young and enthusiastic challenge, with youngsters such as Cristiano Ronaldo, and Moutinho now firmly established in the line-up. Gone is the golden generation of Portuguese footballers. Only Luis Figo remains from that group of players. However, when you look at the other sides in this pot, then it is no easy breakfast to face a team such as Sweden, who boasts one of the best players in the world today in Zlatan Ibrahimovic. If you consider Sweden a decent side, then you must surely consider Croatia to be one too, as they beat the Swedes home and away during the qualifiers. Switzerland and Poland have both made previous appearances at the World Cup. This time around, both of them will be looking to improve upon their last appearances at major tournaments. Poland disappointed everyone at the 2002 World Cup, whilst Switzerland were disappointed to have been knocked out so easily during the first round of Euro 2004. This Swiss side, though, is a younger, hungrier and a more talented side than the side that failed in Portugal. It is largely made up of the successful Swiss youth side that impressed everyone in the European Championships a few years ago. Poland, too, will be hoping that they can impress at the World Cup. They gave England two tough games during the qualifiers although they lost both home and away to the English. That leaves Ukraine, first time finalists, but boasting a talented generation of football players, largely with backgrounds in Dinamo Kiev or Shakhtar Donetsk. People who thinks facing players such as Shevchenko, Timoschuk, Nescmashny, and Voronin among others is an easy prospect are fooling themselves. Let's not forget Ukraine came top in a group that included two former European Champions, including the current holders, and the third place team from the last World Cup. In fact, Ukraine had not lost any match, until after it had confirmed qualification to the World Cup as the first European nation to do so.

All in all, Iran should be hoping to get Poland out of the pot. Otherwise, it may not be too bad to get Croatia either, as Branko Ivankovic would have full knowledge of the Croatians. Even though, they were impressive during the qualifiers, it may be a blessing in disguise to see the Iranian head coach go up against his home-country. Needless to say, a draw is probably the minimum that Iran should be getting out of the match against teams from this pot.

The Bottom Line

Whilst there are no easy teams that Iran can be grouped with, theoretically there will be many combitions, which can be labelled an easy draw or a difficult draw, along the lines of the infamous "group of death". For instance, Iran might be grouped with Brazil, Holland and the Ivory Coast. This is as close to a worst case scenario for Iran as possible. As another example following the same thinking, imagine Iran being in the same group as England, Holland and Paraguay. How many Iranians will then retain their belief that this side must advance to the second stage, or will otherwise be deemed a failure? On the flip side, imagine being grouped with Mexico, Togo and Poland. On paper that may just be the easiest draw that Iranians can hope for, giving them more than a half-chance to make it to the second round. The possibilities are endless.The implications can cause heartbreak or ecstasy. But, on the night of December 9, in a room, in Leipzig, the fate of a nation will become clear, and preparation for the next 6 months can officially begin. The question that remains is what is it that Iran wants from the draw on Friday? Simply, any draw that will give them a chance to progress. In other words, which in essence could equate to avoiding Holland, Czech Republic, Portugal, Paraguay and, possibly, Ivory Coast in the draw. Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether Iran is preparing for celebration or failure. Time will tell. For now, let us savour the moment and enjoy the excitement that is upon us.

Ideal Scenario

Mexico
Togo or Angola
Poland
Iran

Unfavorable Scenario One

Brazil or Argentina
Ivory Coast
Holland, Czech Republic or Portugal
Iran

Unfavorable Scenario Two

England, France or Italy
Paraguay
Holland, Czech Republic or Portugal
Iran

Compromise Scenario

Spain
Ghana
Sweden
Iran